Aquitaine Equity Research
If I’ve learned one thing in my career, it’s that the best investment opportunities are almost always the most uncomfortable ones. Usually for one of two reasons:
The stock has already surged. No matter how compelling the fundamentals, few investors can bring themselves to buy at $100 if the stock was trading at $50 just a few months earlier. Many don’t even get as far as the fundamentals; they simply assume it’s already too late.
The stock has tumbled. If it’s fallen to $50, its future likely appears far less promising—or assured—than it did at $100, even if little has changed beneath the surface.
So what do investors do? They wait for things to feel comfortable: for a pullback that never comes, or for “confirmation” of a rebound before buying, convinced they can still capture most of the upside. The instinct is perfectly understandable. It’s also antithetical to outsized long-term returns.
Is it possible to capitalize on these opportunities and still sleep at night? Fortunately, yes. Diversification is the most common answer. The problem, as Bill Ruane—Warren Buffett’s longtime friend—once put it: “I don’t know anybody who can really do a good job investing in a lot of stocks except Peter Lynch.”
The alternative is deep fundamental research. It’s the only reliable way to quiet that nagging voice asking—or at least should be asking—“What am I missing?” when you think you’ve found something compelling. Even then, depth alone isn’t sufficient. In fact, depth can just as easily reinforce the wrong conclusion (i.e. confirmation bias). How you inquire thus matters as much as how long you inquire.
To develop real, defensible conviction where others lack it, you also need to understand why mispricings occur. For example, investors have a well-documented preference for simple, black-or-white narratives. Reality is messier. Differentiated insight therefore requires comfort with ambiguity and nuance.
Investors also take cues from one another. Social proof is powerful; herding is natural. To act when others won’t, you must be willing to go against the crowd—but only when the facts genuinely warrant it.
And that, in a nutshell, is what we’re trying to do here at Aquitaine. So far, so good: over the last two years, the Aquitaine Model Portfolio (AMP) has outperformed the S&P 500 by roughly 60%.*
About me
My name’s Luke Emerson. I’m a former buy-side analyst and CFA charterholder whose been investing in overlooked and misunderstood companies since 2018. Betting against the consensus has always come naturally to me. Knowing when it’s the right thing to do, on the other hand, is a skill I’ve had to develop—slowly, and often the hard way—over time.
You can find out more about Aquitaine’s investment philosophy and what differentiates my research process here.
What readers are saying
“Luke is a brilliant analyst. We believe he wrote THE deep dive on Disney.”
—Value Punks“I just finished reading your latest deep dive on Lululemon—phenomenal work.” —Neel R., PM, Fundamental Equities
“Really an amazing review.” —Emerging Value
“Great analysis, really appreciate the work you put into it, Luke.” —Mark S., Private Investor
What can I expect as a paid subscriber?
Company deep dives and other members-only research
Earnings and thesis updates, plus watchlist names
Live portfolio visibility and chat access
What is “Aquitaine”?
“We learn from history that we do not learn from history.” —Georg Wilhelm Friedrich Hegel
Aquitaine (pronounced Ack-wit-tain) is a historical region in southwestern France, long regarded as the world’s most prestigious and valuable wine-producing area (home to modern-day Bordeaux). Its first vineyards were planted by the Romans two thousand years ago.
The name serves as two reminders central to our investment process:
Never lose sight of the big picture. A perspective easily forgotten in an industry where “long-term” often means just a few quarters.
Learn from history. As Charlie Munger once observed, “It’s good to learn from your mistakes. It’s better to learn from other people’s mistakes.” At Aquitaine, we aim to do both.
